The ozone hole is growing and there's nothing to be done
The core idea stands, but key numbers or details have changed.
TaughtA hole in the ozone layer is opening over Antarctica and expanding. It is one of the defining environmental catastrophes of your lifetime and it is getting worse every year.
NowIt is healing. The 2018 WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment confirmed ozone recovering at roughly 1 to 3 percent per decade, and projections have the Antarctic hole closing around 2066. The Montreal Protocol worked.
What actually happened
The panic was justified. Molina and Rowland published the CFC mechanism in 1974, the British Antarctic Survey documented the hole in 1985, and the projection was a thinning shield against UV radiation with catastrophic consequences for skin cancer, cataracts, and crops.
Then governments did something, which is the part worth teaching. The Montreal Protocol, signed in 1987, phased out CFCs and became the only UN treaty ever ratified by every country on Earth. Industry found substitutes faster and more cheaply than predicted. Solomon and colleagues published direct evidence of healing in Science in 2016, and the 2018 assessment made it official. The 2022 assessment projected recovery to 1980 values around 2066 over the Antarctic, 2045 over the Arctic, and 2040 for the rest of the world.
The co-benefit is larger than the headline. CFCs are potent greenhouse gases, and the Protocol is estimated to have avoided a substantial fraction of a degree of warming, making it accidentally one of the most effective climate treaties in existence. There have been setbacks: unexpected CFC-11 emissions traced to eastern China around 2018 were detected and largely stopped. The point stands. The catastrophe you were taught about is the one environmental crisis we mostly fixed.
Newsletter
Get new weekly revisions
Sources
- UNEP/WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletionozone.unep.org
- NASA Ozone Watchozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov
Who was taught this
Still standard through 2000, so anyone who finished school between 1950 and 2018 learned the earlier version.